The Puzzle and the Illusion

In Texas, October weather patterns create a complex puzzle for anglers to solve. For good reasons, many of us think of the Halloween month as one with mostly pleasant weather. But, in the first full autumn month, a wide gap can occur between the highest high and lowest low temperatures. This disparity, combined with frequent shifts in wind direction, can complicate things for coastal anglers in the Lone Star State.

In bays all over Texas, from Boca Chica to Sabine Pass, temperatures trend down in October. Generally, expected highs in the mid-80s occur daily at the start of the month, with lows averaging in the mid-70s. By the time the trick-or-treaters hit the streets, those values have declined by about 10°F. But the averages don't tell the full story. On many days, especially south of the Coastal Bend, during the first half of the month, high temperatures above 90° occur. On the other hand, especially on the Upper Coast, during the second half of the month, low temperatures drop down into the 50s fairly often.

One would not expect the temperature to vary by so much in any specific place on any given day, since the lowest low temperatures often occur on days with lower high temperatures. Still, extreme variations in temperatures experienced all over Texas this month influence the efforts of anglers who target trout, redfish and flounder with artificial lures. Importantly, water temperatures rise and fall at a slower rate than air temperatures; October water temperatures in our state more closely resemble those prevalent in summer than in winter.

Potentially, this disparity between the way the air feels to us and the way the fish feel the weather changes in their wet world complicates matters further for anglers. Many folks react too quickly when the first nippy fronts of fall send air temperatures plummeting rapidly and make morning boat rides to fishing holes feel chilly. It's easy to mistakenly think the fish will react to these changes in the same way they will later, after water temperatures fall into the 50s on a regular basis.

Generally, water temperatures in Texas bays and coastal waterways this month make fish feel comfortable, not likely to seek deeper or shallower water to cool off or warm up. When fish feel comfortable in water of moderate temperatures, predicting their specific locations becomes more difficult than when they feel stressed by either extremely hot or cold water. Consequently, anglers attempting to solve the October puzzle must first make good decisions about where to make their efforts, meaning whether to work backwater areas and places near marshes in the upper regions of the bays, to fish areas within the main basins of the bays, or to try places closer to passes which connect the bays to the Gulf.

When making these choices, an angler should consider the depth of water in the place and in nearby places. Extremely variable tide levels in Texas' bays this month can complicate this, adding another element of complexity to the puzzle. On average, bull tides, meaning extremely high ones, dominate our coastal waters during the weeks following the autumnal equinox, which occurs about two-thirds of the way through September. Bull tides typically make fishing for trout, reds and flounder tougher, because they tend to spread fish out over larger areas, including vast, shallow parts of our bays which become void of fish on extremely low tides.

In South Texas, tide level plays a more important role than tide movement in many places. In Baffin Bay, for instance, tides normally don't move much on a daily basis. On the Upper Coast, in bays like Galveston Bay and Sabine Lake, tides roll with much greater intensity, and paying attention to key parts of the tide cycle plays a critical role in generating and executing successful plans. In any part of the state, strong winds can and will affect tide levels. Generally, strong northwest winds blow water out of our bays, and stout easterly winds blow water into them.

These facts affect anglers' decisions about where to fish during October. Fishing well into backwater areas when tides stand at extremely high levels makes sense, as does moving toward the basins and passes when tides fall out. Partly, this rings true because of the timing of a significant natural event which occurs every fall in our estuaries. Many millions of organisms migrate from the bays to the open ocean this time of year, motivated by phenomena like strong frontal passages and tide movements. When cold fronts send water gushing out of shallow marshes and into the open basins of our bays, shrimp and various kinds of small fish begin heading out of their nurseries, on their way to the depths of the Gulf of Mexico.

When this happens, these prey species face a daunting gauntlet. Trout, redfish, flounder and other predators intercept as many of the migrants as they can, gorging on a rich, temporary feast. Flocks of Laughing Gulls, terns and other birds play a role in the dramatic scenario too, hovering, screeching, diving and claiming meals driven through the water's surface to them by the snapping jaws of prowling schools of fish. Working birds simplify things for coastal anglers who prioritize fast action and catching lots of trout over catching big ones, especially while north winds reduce water temperatures and lower tide levels, setting the mechanics of the migrations in motion.

Typically, while numerous flocks of gulls hover over migrating shrimp under attack from schools of trout and redfish in the basins of our bays, the bite in the shallows on nearby shorelines has tremendous potential, too. Anglers who key on popping slicks and herds of nervous mullet often take advantage of situations like those by ignoring the gulls and the people in boats chasing after them and wading shallow flats and reefs, targeting the bigger trout in the area. Big trout like to eat other fish, and they're not often caught by anglers tossing lures under birds lurking over schools of aggressive medium-sized trout. Trophy trout hunters know this; they prefer wading and working their lures around frantic mullet more than under squawking gulls.

When choosing which lures to throw during October, coastal anglers in Texas face another potentially confounding puzzle. Floating plugs work well this month for folks targeting both trout and redfish. Often, casting topwaters under working birds works wonders, even while north winds still whistle after the passage of a cold front. So, topwater lures do work well this month in post-front conditions, especially when a front passes without immediately generating crystal clear skies. Some of the best conditions for throwing floating plugs this month coincide with stormy, cool, cloudy, post-front weather.

Topwaters also draw consistent strikes from trout and reds this time of year on mornings when relatively hot, calm conditions similar to those prevalent throughout the previous three months occur. This is part of what makes the October puzzle difficult to solve. Earning blow ups under blue skies early on warm mornings this time of year proves easy for people who know how to walk the dog, but on other calm, clear days, floating plugs become nearly useless to anglers targeting trout and reds in Texas bays.

Anyone with more than a few days spent on the water in the weeks leading up to Halloween has likely experienced the most frustrating aspect of fall fishing in our state. On the most beautiful days, the halcyon days, when fair skies and cool, crisp air welcome us out onto the water, earning strikes can become every bit as tough as the weather is pretty. When bright skies shine over slick-calm, cooling bays, savvy anglers react in two basic ways; they abandon topwaters for lures which work closer to the bottom and offer smaller lures to the fish, acknowledging the inherent difficulty of getting trout, reds and flounder to bite in pristine conditions.

Many would cite the effects of high pressure on halcyon days as the element responsible for confounding the efforts of anglers. I suspect the pressure has little to do with the finicky attitudes exhibited by predatory fish in such situations. Days with cloudless skies, silent winds and a pleasant chill in the air often occur immediately after the winds of passing cold fronts fizzle and die. Significantly, predatory fish feed aggressively, gorging predictably when the fronts hit and for a while after they pass.

After feverishly feeding fish fill their bellies, they will need to rest and digest what they've eaten. Often, they're doing so on the very days many inexperienced anglers would identify as ideal for heading out in a boat to fish the coastal waters, setting up disappointment for those who don't understand what's happening. Regardless of the reasons or the explanations, smart lure-chunkers anticipate difficulties when they choose to fish on the days with the prettiest weather this month, mostly using small soft plastics and spoons to target trout, reds and flounder and presenting the lures in creative, sometimes wildly erratic ways.

Successfully making these kinds of adjustments can seem like a form of fishing magic to some people, at some times. Anglers who consistently catch fish at a fast clip this time of year can appear to rely on mysterious instincts. This appearance is an illusion, though. Anglers who learn to consistently solve this month's puzzle rely on knowledge earned through the proper analysis of repeated experiences, not on nebulous wizardry. In this way, coastal fishing for lure-chunkers in the Lone Star State in October is exactly the same as in the other eleven months.